US citizens will go to the polls in less than two weeks to decide if they want Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump to be their next President.
With
the debates out of the way, the race is into its final stages - with
both candidates racking up some serious air miles to give speeches
across the country.
A week ago, Hillary Clinton was riding a seemingly unassailable lead in the national polls.
But her lead has shrunk dramatically - it could even be within the margin of error.
Between now and the election we'll bring you the latest poll results, along with the rolling average calculated by TalkingPointsMemo.com
Here's the state of the polls in the US presidential election as they stand.
With three days to go, Hillary Clinton is holding onto a single point lead over Donald Trump in the latest nationwide head-to-head Fox News poll.
When
third-party candidates are included in the poll, her lead extends to
two points - but that’s still within the margin of error.
The same poll a week ago showed her five points in front in the head-to-head.
Meanwhile
FiveThirtyEight’s analysis of the national polls shows Clinton’s lead
stabilising after a run of polls showing a decreasing lead.
That’s echoed by TalkingPointsMemo’s national poll tracker, which shows a slight increase in her lead to 2.4 points.
But in state polls - which hold more useful information this close to the election - the picture isn’t so rosy.
She’s tied in New Hampshire and down to a 3 point lead in Pennsylvania - both states she needs to win to be assured of victory.
FiveThirtyEight have also moved New Mexico into the “state to watch” column.
Overall they’re showing Donald Trump creeping up to a 35% likelihood of winning the election.
November 3 - Florida and Georgia
With five days to go until polling day, let’s take a look at some polls in a couple of the crucial swing states.
Polls
close in Florida before most of the country, and with 29 electoral
votes on the table and the polls on a knife edge it’s a pretty big deal
for both candidates.
TPM have Clinton ahead by 1.4 points on
average, but in recent days we’ve seen a string of new polls from Fox,
CNN and Trafalgar placing her between 1 and 4 points ahead.
Her lead gets significantly wider in polls which include third party candidate Gary Johnson.
Georgia
has 16 votes up for grabs, and Trump is just holding on to a one point
lead in the most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.
Turning to the national averages, Donald’s taken a dip which
has opened the race up a bit in TPM’s averages. There’s 2.9 points
between them as we go into the final five days.
FiveThirtyEight’s forecast,
on the other hand, has Trump gaining some significant ground. They’re
now giving him a 33% probability of winning the election.
November 1 - A yuge mistake?
Two weeks ago, leading British bookmaker Paddy Power announced it was paying out £800,000 to Hillary Clinton backers.
This
afternoon they and two other bookies sent out press releases declaring
they'd slashed the odds on a Donald Trump presidency. So did Paddy Power make a yuge mistake?
Probably
not. Rather than looking at the number of people saying they'll vote
one way or another, like polls do, bookies work on the probability of
one or other candidate winning. Paddy Power are now giving The Donald.
28% chance of victory, which isn't nothing, but it's not as scary as all
that.
In fact it's pretty much the same probability FiveThirtyEight's forecast has given him for the past few weeks.
Of
course, if a bunch of people run out and put bets on a guy who's 72%
likely to lose, and he loses, they make a tonne of money. So we can't
imagine what all these emails are all about.
No comments:
Post a Comment